Bush Let me first get it on the table that, though I'm a long-time registered Republican, I don't particularly identify myself with any political party. So when local investment advisors tell me that the market plummeted today because Obama gave a speech, I'm already skeptical.

Especially considering that no one can accurately explain what the stock market does in any one day. However, when they tell me how bad the stock market has performed under Obama, that's something that's easy enough to check out. To measure US stock returns, I looked at the total return of the US stock market and used the total return of the Wilshire I then looked at the annualized returns under G.

Bush for the eight years ending January 20, I did the same for the period since January 20, for Obama. Republicans The same local investment advisors who declare that Obama is bad for stocks, also state that the market wants Republican pro-business policies. While those investment advisors also claim to be able to pick winning stocks and time the market, I've long since accepted that not only do I not possess those abilities, such abilities do not even exist.

Nor does the ability exist to actually know what the stock market wants.

I can, however, research past performance under Republican and Democratic administrations. The October Journal of Finance published such a study by Pedro Stana-Clara and Rossen Valkanov that examined the issue. The study viewed stock market returns from - , and was far more scientific than my simple analysis of stocks since It looked at excess returns over the risk free rate of a three month Treasury bill.

So what does this mean? I caution you not to conclude that future stock performance will be better under Democrats.

These statistics could just as easily be the result of finding patterns out of randomness, such as the Superbowl effect or September bear market trend.

George W. Bush - 25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis - TIME

What it does mean is that investment advisors, and even investors as a whole, are very loose with quoting market data. Accuracy seems to be irrelevant. Throw a little politics into the mix and the emotion drives the distortion higher by a factor of ten.

People want the data to support their positions so they make up some facts. Others hear these faulty facts and let confirmation bias drive them to blindly believe and spread the word without bothering to verify the accuracy. Simply put, people believe these statements as fact because they want to believe them. Whether Obama gets another term, or a Republican takes up residence in the White House, I'm sticking to my asset allocation policy. I'm even sticking to my asset allocation through the current destructive, make the other party look bad, lack of governance our politicians seem to be showing today.

I don't claim to know everything financial markets want, but I've got to believe markets would rather have a functional government over what we currently have today.

Admittedly, I have no data to support this last opinion. The author of How a Second Grader Beats Wall Street , Roth teaches investments and behavioral finance at the University of Denver and is a frequent speaker. He is required by law to note that his columns are not meant as specific investment advice, since any advice of that sort would need to take into account such things as each reader's willingness and need to take risk.

The Bush Stock Market Collapse | BushToll

His columns will specifically avoid the foolishness of predicting the next hot stock or what the stock market will do next month. Find out what activities and attractions make these 20 cities and town some of the best places to retire around the world. Generics are a great way to save money in lots of cases, but here is a look at some clear exceptions. Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. Market data provided by Interactive Data. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions News provided by The Associated Press.

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Stock Market Predictions: Trump Slump in January for Stocks - The Great Recession Blog

Last Updated Sep 21, 9: I live in a very politically conservative community - Colorado Springs. Whenever I'm around local investment professionals, I hear how bad Barack Obama has been for the stock market, which got me to wondering if that were actually true. So I thought it would be interesting to look at US stock market performance under Obama and G. While I'm at it, let's also take a longer-term look at stock performance under Democrats and Republicans. Finally, I'll offer my thoughts on what the statistics mean, along with what conclusion you shouldn't make.

Bush - negative 3.

Presidential Stock Market Scorecards: Reagan to Obama

The US stock market performed better under Obama than G. Bush by a staggering Republicans - positive 1. Through , US stocks performed higher by nine percentage points annually under Democrats than Republicans. If this study were to be updated, the gap would widen further. Featured in Moneywatch 20 of the coolest places to retire in the world Find out what activities and attractions make these 20 cities and town some of the best places to retire around the world 10 products you should never buy generic Generics are a great way to save money in lots of cases, but here is a look at some clear exceptions.

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