You don't have to listen very hard to hear the bears growling on Wall Street, London, or Paris these days.THE SIMPSONS - 100% HOAX 2017 FALSE FLAG & ENTIRE SYRIA REVOLUTION IS FAKE
Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down another points on Wednesday to just under 16, He's not had much nice to say about the global economy in years, and recent events have only hardened his convictions that the world is headed for disaster, and will take the prices of equities down with it.
Edwards predicts the U. In a research note published Wednesday, Edwards argued that ever since the last financial crisis, the global economy has been dependent on the Federal Reserve's massive bond buying program to prop up equity prices and stimulate growth in emerging markets.
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Now that the Fed has stopped buying bonds and has actually moved to raise rates, the artificial growth in asset prices that we've seen since the last financial crisis will come undone, according to Edwards.
Like other analysts who are increasingly bearish, Edwards marshals the recent events in China as evidence that something is seriously wrong.
He argues that Chinese policy makers are in an impossible bind. Their currency is actually overvalued, he argues. Nonetheless, too bold an attempt to devalue the yuan would lead wealthy Chinese to remove even more of their money from the economy, destabilizing the situation further. What's more, the Chinese manufacturing sector, which has been over-investing in additional production for years now, has but one option: And that's going to lead to deflation.
And even though manufacturing makes up just a fraction of the United States economy, the struggles of the manufacturing sector will eventually infect the services industries as well. The end result of all of this will be another recession, followed by aggressive central bank action to fight falling equity prices and negative growth, according to this analysis.
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But with interest rates already so low and the Fed's balance sheet already inflated from all the bonds it bought during its last stimulus efforts, there is little the central bank can do to stop what Edwards calls a secular bear market.
It should be pointed out that Edwards has been making similar calls for years.
Of course, this doesn't mean that Edwards is wrong. It's plausible that Edwards is correct in his analysis that global equity markets are hopelessly dependent on central bank stimulus, and that prices will somehow, someway crash down to earth when that stimulus is removed.
But if you can't tell investors when this will happen, that analysis isn't very meaningful. It amounts to complaints over public policy rather than sound investment advice.
That said, even more bullish analysts like Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics are sounding rattled by the events taking place of late in China. Global oil and commodities markets appear to fit this description, and so even if things don't get s bad as Edwards claims they will, that doesn't mean that there are clear skies ahead for investors. Uber Uber Co-Founder Travis Kalanick Resigns as CEO: North Korea Donald Trump Says China Tried But Failed to Help on North Korea.
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